Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.030092 0.034247 0.038790 0.044128 0.050233 0.057005 0.065093
2025-02-02 0.024201 0.029996 0.036909 0.045780 0.056888 0.070373 0.088038
2025-02-09 0.021021 0.027594 0.035909 0.047238 0.062328 0.081818 0.109032
2025-02-16 0.018159 0.024969 0.034006 0.046933 0.065042 0.089652 0.125875
2025-02-23 0.016168 0.023141 0.032784 0.047173 0.068238 0.098168 0.144305
2025-03-02 0.014328 0.021246 0.031169 0.046541 0.069946 0.104546 0.160139
2025-03-09 0.013230 0.020268 0.030710 0.047458 0.073901 0.114463 0.182209
2025-03-16 0.011965 0.018881 0.029460 0.046974 0.075559 0.120917 0.199414
2025-03-23 0.011321 0.018377 0.029492 0.048458 0.080418 0.132812 0.226653
2025-03-30 0.010141 0.016884 0.027790 0.046916 0.080088 0.136098 0.239596
2025-04-06 0.009286 0.015841 0.026712 0.046283 0.081179 0.141796 0.257227
2025-04-13 0.008312 0.014500 0.025004 0.044379 0.079824 0.143042 0.266848
2025-04-20 0.008000 0.014296 0.025253 0.046001 0.085026 0.156647 0.301244
2025-04-27 0.007703 0.014092 0.025484 0.047617 0.090390 0.171121 0.339059
2025-05-04 0.007417 0.013877 0.025668 0.049143 0.095714 0.186015 0.379372
2025-05-11 0.006911 0.013201 0.024932 0.048824 0.097384 0.193934 0.406311
2025-05-18 0.006525 0.012717 0.024512 0.049075 0.100197 0.204378 0.439692
2025-05-25 0.006068 0.012053 0.023683 0.048417 0.101064 0.210888 0.465271
2025-06-01 0.005828 0.011801 0.023643 0.049372 0.105398 0.225079 0.509492
2025-06-08 0.005455 0.011246 0.022944 0.048867 0.106532 0.232476 0.539052
2025-06-15 0.005313 0.011157 0.023191 0.050414 0.112321 0.250680 0.595999
2025-06-22 0.004889 0.010435 0.022051 0.048807 0.110848 0.252356 0.613433
2025-06-29 0.004585 0.009944 0.021364 0.048148 0.111476 0.258904 0.643552